Outlook
We are heavily committed to implementing the strategic guidelines set out in the 2023-2026 Plan, leveraging on the distinctive traits of our business model and on the proven ability to deal with unfavourable economic cycles by turning criticalities into opportunities
While the scenario forecasted for the next twelve months continues to be affected by uncertainties related to growing geopolitical risks, it also reflects weak growth by the leading European economies, along with a slowdown in inflationary pressures and more accommodative monetary policies, with the effects to be felt from the first half of 2025 in particular, as described in the table and graph below.
| 20241 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IT GDP (Y/Y) | 0.8% | 1.0% | 0.9% | 0.7% |
| ES GDP (Y/Y) | 0.6% | 1.5% | 1.7% | 1.6% |
| IT Inflation (Y/Y) | 1.6% | 2.1% | 2.3% | 2.2% |
| IT Core Infl. (Y/Y) | 2.1% | 2.2% | 2.4% | 2.4% |
| IT Unemp. Rate | 7.5% | 7.8% | 8.0% | 8.1% |
| Euribor 3M | 3.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
| IT 10Y yeld | 3,7% | 3,9% | 4,2% | 4,6% |
| BTP-Bund spread | 135bp | 156bp | 160bp | 160bp |
(1) GDP and CPI are annual % change; Unemployment rate is the yearly average; IT 10Y yield and BTP-Bund spread are the 2Q daily average in each year; Euribor 3M is the previous four quarters’ average as of 2Q; Scenario BP23-26: 2026 growth and inflation are 2026h1/2025h1; 2026 Unemp. is 1Q and 2Q average; scenario June24: 2027 growth and inflation are 2027h1/2026h1; 2027 Unemp. is 1Q and 2Q average
Based on the scenario described above, the Mediobanca Group confirms its strategic vision and the trajectory outlined in the 2023-26 Strategic Plan “One Brand-One Culture” based on:
- High and above-average growth due to the divisions’ specialized and distinctive positioning;
- High capital generation;
- Distribution policy at best sector levels, with low execution risk.
Highlights of FY 2024-25 should include the following:
- The ongoing strengthening in distribution and the healthy commercial activity in Wealth Management will drive growth in TFAs, with NNM expected to reach €9-10bn for the year, while the selective asset growth and optimization activity will enable RWAs to remain stable, even with the introduction of the Basel IV system of regulations;
- Revenues are expected to increase, on strong, low double-digit growth in fee income driven by WM and the capital-light services offered by CIB, boosted further by the declining interest rates; while net interest income will maintain an upward trajectory but with low single-digit growth, helped by CF which is more resilient in a declining interest rate scenario;
- The cost/income ratio should stand at 44%, even with ambitious plans to invest in digital and in distribution (in WM in particular);
- The cost of risk is expected to be ~55 bps, leveraging on the substantial overlays set aside;
- Earning per share (EPS) is expected to grow by 6-8%1;
- With reference to shareholder remuneration, DPS is expected to grow, with the cash payout confirmed at 70% (interim dividend to be paid in May 2025 and the balance in November 2025), plus a new share buyback scheme to be implemented (approx. €385m)2.
1 Including the cancellation of approx. 80% of the treasury shares to be acquired through the €385m share buyback to be implemented during FY 2024-25.
2 The second share buyback scheme envisaged in the 2023-26 Strategic Plan will be implemented in FY 2024-25, subject to authorization by the ECB and by shareholders in Annual General Meeting.